Risks are high. We should be attentive.
Several serious problems are unfolding with increasing speed.

There is not much we can do to significantly alter the course of events
since we all vitally depend on the system. I think people would be want to be better informed about the situation so that efforts
are put into what matters under those circumstances.

The conditions to which we are accustomed are changing.
Risks are high. We should be attentive.
Several very serious threats are converging with increasing speed.

There is not much we can do to significantly alter the course of events.
Societies are vulnerable because they do not appreciate the nature of their own dependencies. I think many people understand the problems but they assume it is socially inappropriate to mention it.

The conditions to which we are accustomed are changing.

Several very serious threats are converging with increasing speed.


Societies are unprepared to detect and interpret the early warning signs,
to deal with what is happening and what to do when shit hits the fan.
I think many people understand the gravity but escape into wishful thinking and magic.

The situation is poised to become rather catastrophic.
Multiple hazards stemming from global carrying capacity overshoot,
bad enough one-by-one, interact in ways that exacerbate their effects.


Society is unprepared to deal with them. The behavioral, political and economic changes to avert, or delay the process, are unlikely to materialize on time. I think a collapse is inevitable but some things can be done to make it less ugly, and perhaps a recovery on very different fundamentals could be prepared in advance.

There is an onset of irreversible changes that are poised to destabilize the system and cause potentially
catastrophic outcomes if not an outright existential threat.
No technology is capable to address all aspects of the global carrying capacity overshoot.


Society is woefully unprepared. The behavioral, political and economic changes
to avert, or delay a collapse are unlikely to materialize on time.

I think that some of the worst outcomes are preventable if we face the challenge and talk about it openly.

There is an onset of irreversible changes
that will destabilize civilization.
We can’t stop this process because over the years
we have already so profoundly overshot the global carrying capacity that
population contraction and a dis-orderly economic contraction looks like a certainty.
We can prepare for a collapse even if we can’t stop it. Maybe the act of preparation will avert the worst. I think that local resilience is key for avoiding the worst outcomes.

There is a convergence of irreversible processes, set in motion
centuries (and even millennia) ago. Societal collapse is certain and there is nothing we can do about it.

We might see knee-jerk reactions that can only make things worse – unwise geoengineering or nuclear conflicts – which can cause even greater harm to ourselves, civilization and the biosphere.
We can prevent them. I think a collapse is inevitable and both history and human behavior tell us it is likely to be quite ugly. But we should still take our chances to avoid the worst.

Due to the lock-in of socio-economic processes
and the convergence of irreversible constraints, societal collapse is certain.

Increasing stress and declining resilience is already apparent in many parts of the world
and within critical global systems.
We can prevent additional harm to ourselves, civilization and the biosphere,
if we can stand up to the challenge and talk about it openly. I think that chances of influencing the course of events are exceedingly small.

Due to the lock-in of socio-economic processes
societal collapse is certain. It may happen any time.

Increasing stress and declining resilience is already apparent in many parts of the world
and within critical global systems.
We can’t prevent much. I think there is nothing I can do about it, so it is not my problem.

We are fucked.
Guns, cans and bunkers
are the only meaningful way
to deal with this.

We can’t prevent anything. I think the less people know about this the better off I am.

The universe is expanding,
and anyway life on Earth cannot go on
forever due to the laws of thermodynamics.


So, either now or in a hundred thousand years – what difference does it make? I might as well maximize my pleasures now.